The “production + service” model is becoming the direction for lubricant companies.

In the post-pandemic era, as demand for lubricants declines, the “production + service” supply-chain model should become the development direction for domestic lubricant manufacturers and distributors. This was the key message conveyed at the second session of the second general meeting of the Shandong Province Lubricant Industry Association, held in Jinan on June 27. At the meeting, experts pointed out that due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, both domestic and international demand for lubricants has declined. Specifically, domestic demand for lubricants is expected to drop by 7% to 10% year-on-year. However, China’s current oil-grade structure lags behind the evolving environmental standards for vehicles; thus, there remains considerable room for improvement in China’s oil-grade levels in the future, which could lead to an increase in demand for lubricants. Zhang Chenhui, deputy director of the Specialized Committee of the National Lubricant Enterprises Alliance, noted that, amid the decline in lubricant demand caused by the pandemic, lubricant companies need to innovate their production and sales models—shifting from a focus on quantity growth to one emphasizing quality enhancement and efficiency improvement. They should develop high-quality, specialized, and niche products, moving away from a single-product structure toward product diversification. At the same time, lubricant companies should also enhance the service levels provided by their sales networks. According to Da Jianwen, head of the expert panel of the Specialized Committee on Research and Application of Special Oil (Wax) Production Technologies, the impact of the pandemic will see domestic sales replacing imports, making it more important than ever to expand domestic sales channels. Nevertheless, in areas such as specialty oils—for example, oils used in vaccines and nuclear power—China still largely relies on imports. Therefore, domestic lubricant companies must persist in pursuing a path of differentiation, specialization, and high-end development, continuously enhancing the added value of their products to meet the new demands of the post-pandemic era.

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Historical China VI Emission Standards and Their Requirements for Engines and Oils

What is China’s Stage VI Emission Standard? “China Stage VI” is the common nickname for the country’s sixth-phase motor vehicle emission standards. The Stage VI standard represents an upgrade over the previous Stage V standard. Compared to Stage V, Stage VI imposes significantly stricter limits on pollutant emissions. Specifically, for gasoline vehicles, the Stage VI standard reduces carbon monoxide emissions by 50%, cuts total hydrocarbon and non-methane hydrocarbon emission limits by 50%, and tightens nitrogen oxide emission limits by 42%. The Stage VI standard is divided into two phases: Phase 6A and Phase 6B. Phase 6A began on July 1, 2020, prohibiting the sale, registration, and licensing of vehicles that fail to meet the Stage 6A emission standards. Phase 6B, starting from July 1, 2023, will similarly ban the sale, registration, and licensing of vehicles that do not meet the Stage 6B emission standards. Currently, some regions have already begun implementing these standards ahead of schedule. How do the emission limits of Stage V and Stage VI differ? Compared to the Stage V standard, Stage VI—especially Stage VI B—significantly improves emission performance. Here’s a comparison of emission limits between Stage V and Stage VI: | Emission Type | Stage V | Stage VI A | Stage VI B | Reduction (%) | |---------------|----------|------------|------------|--------------| | CO (Carbon Monoxide) | 1000 | 700 | 500 | 50% | | THC (Total Hydrocarbons) | 100 | 100 | 50 | 50% | | NMHC (Non-Methane Hydrocarbons) | 68 | 68 | 35 | 48% | | NOx (Nitrogen Oxides) | 60 | 60 | 35 | 42% | | PM (Particulate Matter) | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 33% | To meet the stringent Stage VI emission standards, newly launched vehicles—whether heavy-duty trucks or passenger cars—must adopt new technologies and components in their engines, such as turbocharged direct-injection technology (TGDI), exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), selective catalytic reduction systems (SCR), and particulate filters (DPF or GPF). These technologies are now widely used in engines. The new technologies and components introduced in Stage VI engines place special demands on engine oils: Turbocharged direct-injection technology can easily lead to early combustion at low speeds, requiring lubricants that can effectively inhibit sludge and carbon deposits around the combustion chamber and fuel injectors. Additionally, selective catalytic reduction systems and particulate filters contain precious metals like platinum, gallium, and palladium, which are prone to oxidation and damage; therefore, both fuel gasoline and lubricating oils must have low sulfur and low ash content. To ensure smooth operation and extend the lifespan of Stage VI engines, existing oil grades no longer meet the requirements, necessitating the development of higher-quality Stage VI-specific oils. As a result, the new SP-grade oil standard has been introduced. What is API? API stands for the American Petroleum Institute. The API rating indicates the quality grade of an oil, but it’s important to note that this quality grade does not directly reflect anti-wear performance alone—it represents a “comprehensive quality threshold,” including environmental performance. API ratings are categorized into two main groups: oils for gasoline engines, labeled with “S,” and oils for diesel engines, labeled with “C.” There are also universal lubricants that carry both “S” and “C” designations, compatible with both gasoline and diesel engines within a certain range. Gasoline-engine oils with “S” ratings include: SA, SB, SC, SD, SE, SF, SG, SH, SJ, SL, SM, SN, and the newer SP rating. Why update the standards? In response to increasingly stringent national environmental regulations and energy-saving requirements, automakers are adopting various technologies—including engine downsizing, direct injection, turbocharging, reduced friction, and advanced exhaust treatment and combustion technologies—to further improve fuel efficiency and meet emission standards. For passenger cars, the trend in traditional powertrains has shifted gradually from larger displacement engines to smaller ones: 2.0-liter engines are being replaced by 1.6L, 1.5L, and 1.3L engines, and naturally aspirated engines are giving way to turbocharged engines. These changes all require higher-quality lubricants to provide adequate hardware protection and prevent operational issues, while also leveraging lower viscosity grades to enhance fuel economy. As a result, the lubricant industry faces ever-greater challenges, and updating lubricant formulations has become imperative. From the earlier API SA to today’s API SN, SNplus, and the recently announced API SP, each new standard brings higher requirements for various lubricant parameters. Currently, the mainstream grades in the engine oil market are API SN and SNplus. As the industry continues to evolve, oils of SL grade and below will gradually be replaced by other products. Meanwhile, the SP-grade oil, designed to meet the Stage VI engine requirements and align with national environmental policies, is poised to become the market’s dominant choice in the future.

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Analysis of the Current Development Status of the Upstream Raw Materials Market in the Global Lubricant Industry in 2020: Both Supply and Demand Show Concurrent Growth

The raw materials for lubricant production mainly include base oils and additives. The supply-and-demand situation of these two types of raw materials is crucial to fluctuations in the cost of lubricant raw materials. Regarding the base oil market, in 2019, global base oil production capacity had risen to 1.2 million barrels per day, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. Meanwhile, the global base oil market size was approximately 100,000 barrels per day, with demand in the Asia-Pacific region accounting for about 65% to 70% of the total. As for the additive market, in 2019, global lubricant additive production reached roughly 4.65 million tons, while the global additive market size expanded to US$15.1 billion. 1. Analysis of the Current Supply and Demand Situation in the Base Oil Market: On the supply side, according to data from the "2019 Global Base Oil Refining Guide," global base oil production capacity in 2019 rose to 1.2 million barrels per day, an increase of 7.3% over the 1.1 million barrels per day recorded in 2018. On the demand side, according to assessments by ExxonMobil Asia Pacific, the global base oil market size in 2019 was approximately 100,000 barrels per day, with demand in the Asia-Pacific region accounting for about 65% to 70% of the total. In the future, as utilization rates continue to decline, the base oil market will become increasingly rationalized. 2. Analysis of the Current Supply and Demand Situation in the Additive Market: On the supply side, according to data from the China Lubricant Oil Network, from 2015 to 2019, global lubricant additive supply showed a fluctuating growth trend. In 2018, global additive supply stood at 4.22 million tons; in 2019, global lubricant additive production reached approximately 4.65 million tons. On the demand side, since the 1930s, the global lubricant additive industry has gradually matured, reaching a relatively stable stage with a sizable and steadily growing market. According to statistics from Kline & Co., a global consulting and research firm, and the Shanghai Lubricant Oil Products Industry Association, global demand for lubricant additives increased from 4 million tons in 2012 to 4.65 million tons in 2019, and the market size expanded from US$13.3 billion to US$15.1 billion. Among the demand product structure, dispersants, viscosity index improvers, and detergents accounted for 65% to 70% of total demand; anti-wear agents accounted for about 6% to 7%; and antioxidants accounted for about 4% to 5%.

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Focusing on Automotive Electrification: Is the End of the Oil Bottle Near?

Under the coming wave of electric vehicles, lubricants and motor oils will be used less and less—and in many cases, oil changes won’t even be necessary anymore. Will the rise of electric vehicles spell the end for motor oil bottles? And how will this trend affect other lubricant packaging? Driven by emissions regulations and consumer demand, automakers—from BMW to Nissan—are shifting toward producing electric vehicles. While most EVs today are small- and mid-size cars, the market is expanding into smaller trucks as well. For example, Rivian, a U.S.-based electric vehicle manufacturer, will soon begin selling its R1T pickup truck to the general public. According to Kline & Co., a global consulting and research firm based in Parsippany, New Jersey, U.S., global demand for finished lubricants in 2019 was just over 40.5 million tons, with automotive products accounting for more than half of that total. Heavy-duty engine oils made up 23%, passenger car motor oils accounted for 21%, and gear oils, transmission fluids, wheel bearings, and chassis greases represented 9%. Kline predicts that as fully electric vehicles take over the hybrid market, demand for passenger car engine oils will decline after 2030. A McKinsey study forecasts that due to the growing popularity of electric vehicles and the rise of car-sharing and ride-hailing services, demand for automotive lubricants will drop by 0.8% annually from 2025 to 2035. Matthew Wade, CEO of the Electric Vehicle Institute in Baltimore, Maryland, says the spread of electric vehicles won't eliminate the lubricant industry—but it will impact sales volumes of lubricant products. “Cars still have many components that need lubrication,” Wade notes. He adds that electric vehicles typically require around 40 different types of lubricants. When engine speeds exceed 15,000 revolutions per minute, electric vehicles generate significant power fluctuations, necessitating special lubricants for gear reducers and transmissions, as well as specially formulated fluids to enhance cooling. Additionally, thermal management fluids are needed to help batteries and onboard electronics charge and heat up quickly, boosting vehicle range and ensuring driving safety. Since 2018, many major oil companies and independent firms have introduced lubricant products specifically designed for electric vehicles. Royal Dutch Shell, one of the world’s largest suppliers of finished lubricants, has developed a line of powertrain fluids tailored for both electric and hybrid vehicles. France’s Total has launched two new brands of lubricants for electric and hybrid vehicles; Malaysia’s Petron has also released its own line of EV lubricants; and Multisol, Valvoline, Fuchs, and ExxonMobil have all introduced lubricants designed for hybrids and fully electric vehicles. Meanwhile, BP is undertaking a comprehensive overhaul of its electric-vehicle-specific lubricant brand, Castrol. According to an article by Bloomberg News, Castrol and Fuchs have formed an international team of researchers and regulators dedicated exclusively to the development and sale of EV lubricants and fluids. David Hall, Castrol’s Technical Director for Automotive Lubricants, says automakers are working hard to extend battery life, yet improving lubricant efficiency by just 1% can add four miles to a vehicle’s range. The shift in packaging mirrors the impact of EV adoption on the lubricant market: declining demand for lubricants will also affect other industries—including packaging. Randy Austin, North American Production Line Director at Scholle IPN, says the transition from internal-combustion-engine vehicles to electric vehicles is irreversible, and the packaging industry is slowly adapting as well. “It’s not surprising—we used to package oils for internal-combustion engines, but now we’re starting to serve the electric vehicle market too.” Part of this shift in packaging involves innovations in packaging technology. Austin says, “We could develop containers with locking mechanisms specifically designed for the unique components of electric vehicles.” However, he expects such specialized containers won’t be widely available anytime soon. Austin points out that oil packaging can come in almost any size—ranging from as little as 10 milliliters to tens of thousands of liters. Consumers who change their own oil often buy bottled oils in sizes around five quarts. George Morvey, Industry Manager at Kline & Co.’s Energy Division, isn’t sure exactly how much demand there will be for oils used in electric vehicles, but he anticipates most demand will come from automakers themselves. Typically, oils are shipped to assembly plants in drums and intermediate bulk containers. Will the growth in EV sales lead to a decline in DIY oil sales? Morvey says, “I can’t imagine a Tesla owner going to Walmart to buy a quart of battery coolant and then changing it on the street outside their home.” Austin agrees with Morvey’s view. The DIY market has been shrinking for years, and dealerships and auto repair shops have stepped in to fill the gap. These service centers buy large quantities of specialized lubricants in drums and bags. Austin says the decline in bottled container use is good for the environment. Currently, nearly all used lubricant packaging ends up in landfills. But more and more consumers are choosing to have their oil changed at dealerships and repair shops, creating an environmentally friendly recycling loop. “Most consumers throw away their packaging after changing their oil themselves, but repair shops clean and recycle the containers, reducing waste. Plus, many intermediate bulk containers (like IBCs) can be returned to manufacturers for reuse.” The commercial vehicle market for heavy-duty engine oils started later in terms of electrification, but it won’t fall behind. Allison Transmission, headquartered in Indiana, U.S., has developed new powertrains for fully battery-powered, fuel-cell, and hybrid heavy-duty trucks and buses. In January, Peterbilt unveiled a medium-duty all-electric truck, and the company’s lineup now includes an 8th-grade electric truck and an electric garbage truck. Volvo has also entered the European medium-duty battery-powered market. A powertrain research firm predicts that without electric trucks, heavy-duty oil production will drop by 12.5% by 2030. In 2020, Hyundai’s Kona Electric compact SUV had no engine oil under the hood. According to Kline’s study of 15 major national markets, heavy-duty oil usage is expected to decline over the next 20 years—but heavy-vehicle electrification is only one factor contributing to this decline. Sharbel Luzuriaga, speaking at the Goma Base Oil and Lubricants Symposium in Zagreb, said demand for heavy-duty engine oils will decline at a compound annual growth rate of 1.6%, dropping from 2.5 million tons in 2018 to 2 million tons by 2024. Factors like extended oil-change intervals will contribute to the reduction in oil consumption. Without heavy-vehicle electrification, heavy-duty engine oil usage would decline by only 1.3% annually. Kline forecasts that within 20 years, Canada and Germany will see EV adoption rates among commercial vehicles reach 25%, China will stay below 20%, and the U.S. will hit 15%. Today, Japan has relatively high EV adoption rates among commercial vehicles, at around 5%. It’s still unclear exactly how much impact commercial vehicle electrification will have on the lubricant packaging industry, since commercial fleet repair shops usually buy lubricants in bulk. Although the electric-vehicle revolution will disrupt traditional lubricant and packaging industries, it will also bring opportunities. Wade of the Electric Vehicle Association says, “The electric-vehicle industry is evolving so rapidly that companies that adapt alongside it will be the winners—including the packaging industry.”

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