Under the impending wave of electric vehicles, lubricants and motor oils will be used less and less—and in many cases, motor oils won't even need to be replaced anymore. Will the rise of electric vehicles spell the end for motor oil bottles? And what kind of impact will this have on packaging for other types of lubricants? Driven by stricter emission regulations and shifting consumer demands, automakers—from BMW to Nissan—are starting to shift toward producing electric vehicles. Although most electric vehicles today are compact and midsize sedans, the market is expanding into the small pickup truck segment. For example, the R1T pickup truck produced by U.S. electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian will soon be available to the general public.

Kline & Co., a global consulting and research firm headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey, USA, reported that in 2019, global demand for finished lubricants slightly exceeded 40.5 million tons, with automotive products accounting for more than half of that total. Heavy-duty engine oils made up 23%, passenger car motor oils accounted for 21%, while gear oils, transmission fluids, wheel bearings, and chassis lubricants together accounted for 9%.

Kline stated that, as all-electric vehicles increasingly capture the hybrid vehicle market, demand for passenger car engine oils is expected to decline after 2030. A study by McKinsey predicts that, driven by the growing popularity of electric vehicles as well as car-sharing and ride-hailing services, demand for automotive lubricants will decline by 0.8% annually from 2025 to 2035.

Matthew Wade, CEO of the Electric Vehicle Institute in Baltimore, Maryland, says that while the widespread adoption of electric vehicles won't eliminate the lubricants industry, it will impact sales of lubricant products. “Cars still have many components that require lubrication,” Wade noted.

Wade said that electric vehicles typically require up to 40 types of lubricants. When the engine speed exceeds 15,000 revolutions per minute, the power flow in electric vehicles experiences significant fluctuations, necessitating the addition of lubricants for both gear reducers and transmissions, as well as specially formulated fluids to enhance cooling. In addition, thermal management fluids are required to help batteries and onboard electronic devices charge and heat up more rapidly, thereby increasing the vehicle’s driving range and ensuring driving safety.

Since 2018, many major oil companies and independent firms have launched lubricant products specifically designed for electric vehicles. Royal Dutch Shell, one of the world’s largest suppliers of finished lubricants, has developed a range of powertrain fluids tailored for both electric and hybrid vehicles. Total from France has introduced two new brands of lubricants for electric and hybrid vehicles; Petron from Malaysia has also released its own line of lubricating greases for electric vehicles. Meanwhile, Multisol, Valvoline, Fuchs, and ExxonMobil have all launched lubricants specially formulated for hybrid and all-electric vehicles. In addition, BP is undertaking a comprehensive overhaul of Castrol—their lubricant brand dedicated to electric vehicles.

According to an article by Bloomberg News, Castrol and Fuchs Lubricants have established an international team comprising researchers and regulators, dedicated exclusively to the research, development, and marketing of lubricants and lubricating fluids for electric vehicles. David Hall, Technical Director of Automotive Lubricants at Castrol, noted that electric vehicle manufacturers are working hard to extend battery range; yet, even a 1% improvement in lubricant efficiency can enable a vehicle to travel an additional four miles.

The Transformation of the Packaging Industry

Just as the growing popularity of electric vehicles in the automotive industry is impacting the lubricants market, the decline in demand for lubricants will also affect other industries—including the packaging industry.

Randy Austin, North American Production Line Director at ScholleIPN, stated that the shift from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles is irreversible, and the packaging industry is gradually undergoing a similar transformation. “There’s nothing surprising about it—previously we packaged oil for internal combustion engines, but now we’ve also started providing services for electric vehicles.”

Some of the shifts in the packaging industry are reflected in packaging technologies. “We could develop containers with locking mechanisms specifically designed for automotive components,” Austin said. However, he expects it won’t be possible to produce such containers anytime soon.

Austin pointed out that oil packaging can be made in almost any size, ranging from as little as 10 milliliters to tens of thousands of liters. Consumers who change their own oil typically purchase bottled oil with a capacity of about 5 quarts.

George Morvey is an industry manager in the energy division of Kline & Co. He’s not entirely sure how much demand there will be for oils used in electric vehicles, but he expects most of the demand to come from automakers themselves. Typically, these oils are shipped to auto assembly plants in barrels and intermediate bulk containers. Will the growth in electric vehicle sales lead to a decline in DIY motor oil sales? Morvey says, “I can’t imagine a Tesla owner going to Walmart to buy a quart of battery coolant and then changing the battery fluid on the street outside their home.”

Austin agrees with Morvey’s view. The DIY market has been shrinking for years, and dealerships and auto repair shops have stepped in to fill the gap. These service centers purchase large quantities of specialized lubricants in drums and bags.

Austin said that the decline in the use of bottled containers is beneficial for environmental protection. Currently, almost all lubricant packaging, once emptied, ends up being disposed of in landfills. However, an increasing number of consumers are choosing to have their oil changed at auto dealerships and repair shops, thereby fostering an environmentally friendly recycling loop. “Most consumers simply discard the packaging after changing their own oil, but repair shops clean and recycle these containers, reducing waste. Moreover, many medium-sized bulk containers—such as IBCs—can be returned to manufacturers for reuse.”

Heavy-duty vehicle engine oil

The commercial vehicle market started relatively late in terms of electrification, but it won't fall behind.

Allison Transmission, headquartered in Indiana, USA, has developed a new powertrain system for all-electric, fuel-cell, and hybrid heavy-duty trucks and buses. In January, Peterbilt unveiled a medium-duty all-electric truck; the company’s product lineup also includes an Class 8 electric truck and an electric garbage truck. Volvo has also entered the European market for medium-duty battery-powered vehicles. According to a powertrain research firm, without electric trucks, heavy-duty engine oil production is projected to decline by 12.5% by 2030 compared to previous levels.

Under the hood of the 2020 Hyundai Kona Electric compact SUV, there is no engine oil.

According to a study by Kline on 15 major national markets, heavy-duty engine oil consumption is expected to decline over the next 20 years; however, the electrification of heavy-duty vehicles is only one of several factors contributing to this decline. Sharbel Luzuriaga stated at the Goma Base Oils and Lubricants Symposium held in Zagreb that demand for heavy-duty vehicle engine oils will decline at a compound annual growth rate of 1.6%, dropping from 2.5 million tons in 2018 to 2 million tons in 2024.

Factors such as extended oil-change intervals will lead to a decline in oil consumption. Without the electrification of heavy-duty vehicles, heavy-duty engine oil consumption would decrease by only 1.3% annually. Kline predicts that within 20 years, Canada and Germany will see electric commercial vehicle penetration rates reach 25%, China will fall below 20%, and the United States will reach 15%. Today, Japan has a relatively high penetration rate of electric commercial vehicles, at around 5%.

It’s currently unclear how much of an impact the electrification of commercial vehicles will have on the lubricant packaging industry, as commercial fleet maintenance shops typically purchase lubricants in bulk.

Although the electric vehicle revolution will disrupt the traditional lubricants and packaging industries, it will also bring opportunities. Wade from the Electric Vehicle Association said, “The electric vehicle industry is evolving so rapidly that companies that grow alongside the industry will be the winners—including the packaging industry.”