Analysis of the Current Development Status of the Upstream Raw Materials Market in the Global Lubricant Industry in 2020: Both Supply and Demand Show Concurrent Growth
发布时间：2022年01月08日 15:13
The raw materials for lubricant production mainly include base oils and additives. The supply-and-demand situation of these two types of raw materials is crucial to fluctuations in the cost of lubricant raw materials. Regarding the base oil market, in 2019, global base oil production capacity had risen to 1.2 million barrels per day, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. Meanwhile, the global base oil market size was approximately 100,000 barrels per day, with demand in the Asia-Pacific region accounting for about 65% to 70% of the total. As for the additive market, in 2019, global lubricant additive production reached roughly 4.65 million tons, while the global additive market size expanded to US$15.1 billion.
1. Analysis of the Current Supply and Demand Situation in the Base Oil Market
On the supply side, according to data from the “2019 Global Base Oil Refining Guide,” global base oil production capacity reached 1.2 million barrels per day in 2019, an increase of 7.3% from the 1.1 million barrels per day capacity in 2018.
On the demand side, according to assessment data from ExxonMobil Asia Pacific, in 2019, the global base oil market size was approximately 100,000 barrels per day, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for about 65-70% of global demand. In the future, as utilization rates continue to decline, the base oil market will become increasingly rational.
2. Analysis of the Current Supply and Demand Situation in the Additive Market
On the supply side, according to data from China Lubricant Network, from 2015 to 2019, the global supply of lubricant additives showed a fluctuating growth trend. In 2018, the global supply of additives was 4.22 million tons; in 2019, global production of lubricant additives reached approximately 4.65 million tons.
On the demand side, since the 1930s, the global lubricant additive industry has gradually matured, reaching a relatively stable stage with a sizable market and generally steady growth. According to statistics from Kline & Co., a global consulting and research firm, and the Shanghai Lubricant Industry Association, global demand for lubricant additives increased from 4 million tons in 2012 to 4.65 million tons in 2019, while the market size expanded from 13.3 billion U.S. dollars to 15.1 billion U.S. dollars.
In the structure of demand for products, dispersants, viscosity index improvers, and detergents account for 65% to 70% of total demand; anti-wear agents account for approximately 6% to 7%; and antioxidants account for approximately 4% to 5%.
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