Focusing on Automotive Electrification: Is the End of the Oil Bottle Near?

Under the coming wave of electric vehicles, lubricants and motor oils will be used less and less—and in many cases, oil changes won’t even be necessary anymore. Will the rise of electric vehicles spell the end for motor oil bottles? And how will this trend affect other lubricant packaging? Driven by emissions regulations and consumer demand, automakers—from BMW to Nissan—are shifting toward producing electric vehicles. While most EVs today are small- and mid-size cars, the market is expanding into smaller trucks as well. For example, Rivian, a U.S.-based electric vehicle manufacturer, will soon begin selling its R1T pickup truck to the general public. According to Kline & Co., a global consulting and research firm based in Parsippany, New Jersey, U.S., global demand for finished lubricants in 2019 was just over 40.5 million tons, with automotive products accounting for more than half of that total. Heavy-duty engine oils made up 23%, passenger car motor oils accounted for 21%, and gear oils, transmission fluids, wheel bearings, and chassis greases represented 9%. Kline predicts that as fully electric vehicles take over the hybrid market, demand for passenger car engine oils will decline after 2030. A McKinsey study forecasts that due to the growing popularity of electric vehicles and the rise of car-sharing and ride-hailing services, demand for automotive lubricants will drop by 0.8% annually from 2025 to 2035. Matthew Wade, CEO of the Electric Vehicle Institute in Baltimore, Maryland, says the spread of electric vehicles won't eliminate the lubricant industry—but it will impact sales volumes of lubricant products. “Cars still have many components that need lubrication,” Wade notes. He adds that electric vehicles typically require around 40 different types of lubricants. When engine speeds exceed 15,000 revolutions per minute, electric vehicles generate significant power fluctuations, necessitating special lubricants for gear reducers and transmissions, as well as specially formulated fluids to enhance cooling. Additionally, thermal management fluids are needed to help batteries and onboard electronics charge and heat up quickly, boosting vehicle range and ensuring driving safety. Since 2018, many major oil companies and independent firms have introduced lubricant products specifically designed for electric vehicles. Royal Dutch Shell, one of the world’s largest suppliers of finished lubricants, has developed a line of powertrain fluids tailored for both electric and hybrid vehicles. France’s Total has launched two new brands of lubricants for electric and hybrid vehicles; Malaysia’s Petron has also released its own line of EV lubricants; and Multisol, Valvoline, Fuchs, and ExxonMobil have all introduced lubricants designed for hybrids and fully electric vehicles. Meanwhile, BP is undertaking a comprehensive overhaul of its electric-vehicle-specific lubricant brand, Castrol. According to an article by Bloomberg News, Castrol and Fuchs have formed an international team of researchers and regulators dedicated exclusively to the development and sale of EV lubricants and fluids. David Hall, Castrol’s Technical Director for Automotive Lubricants, says automakers are working hard to extend battery life, yet improving lubricant efficiency by just 1% can add four miles to a vehicle’s range. The shift in packaging mirrors the impact of EV adoption on the lubricant market: declining demand for lubricants will also affect other industries—including packaging. Randy Austin, North American Production Line Director at Scholle IPN, says the transition from internal-combustion-engine vehicles to electric vehicles is irreversible, and the packaging industry is slowly adapting as well. “It’s not surprising—we used to package oils for internal-combustion engines, but now we’re starting to serve the electric vehicle market too.” Part of this shift in packaging involves innovations in packaging technology. Austin says, “We could develop containers with locking mechanisms specifically designed for the unique components of electric vehicles.” However, he expects such specialized containers won’t be widely available anytime soon. Austin points out that oil packaging can come in almost any size—ranging from as little as 10 milliliters to tens of thousands of liters. Consumers who change their own oil often buy bottled oils in sizes around five quarts. George Morvey, Industry Manager at Kline & Co.’s Energy Division, isn’t sure exactly how much demand there will be for oils used in electric vehicles, but he anticipates most demand will come from automakers themselves. Typically, oils are shipped to assembly plants in drums and intermediate bulk containers. Will the growth in EV sales lead to a decline in DIY oil sales? Morvey says, “I can’t imagine a Tesla owner going to Walmart to buy a quart of battery coolant and then changing it on the street outside their home.” Austin agrees with Morvey’s view. The DIY market has been shrinking for years, and dealerships and auto repair shops have stepped in to fill the gap. These service centers buy large quantities of specialized lubricants in drums and bags. Austin says the decline in bottled container use is good for the environment. Currently, nearly all used lubricant packaging ends up in landfills. But more and more consumers are choosing to have their oil changed at dealerships and repair shops, creating an environmentally friendly recycling loop. “Most consumers throw away their packaging after changing their oil themselves, but repair shops clean and recycle the containers, reducing waste. Plus, many intermediate bulk containers (like IBCs) can be returned to manufacturers for reuse.” The commercial vehicle market for heavy-duty engine oils started later in terms of electrification, but it won’t fall behind. Allison Transmission, headquartered in Indiana, U.S., has developed new powertrains for fully battery-powered, fuel-cell, and hybrid heavy-duty trucks and buses. In January, Peterbilt unveiled a medium-duty all-electric truck, and the company’s lineup now includes an 8th-grade electric truck and an electric garbage truck. Volvo has also entered the European medium-duty battery-powered market. A powertrain research firm predicts that without electric trucks, heavy-duty oil production will drop by 12.5% by 2030. In 2020, Hyundai’s Kona Electric compact SUV had no engine oil under the hood. According to Kline’s study of 15 major national markets, heavy-duty oil usage is expected to decline over the next 20 years—but heavy-vehicle electrification is only one factor contributing to this decline. Sharbel Luzuriaga, speaking at the Goma Base Oil and Lubricants Symposium in Zagreb, said demand for heavy-duty engine oils will decline at a compound annual growth rate of 1.6%, dropping from 2.5 million tons in 2018 to 2 million tons by 2024. Factors like extended oil-change intervals will contribute to the reduction in oil consumption. Without heavy-vehicle electrification, heavy-duty engine oil usage would decline by only 1.3% annually. Kline forecasts that within 20 years, Canada and Germany will see EV adoption rates among commercial vehicles reach 25%, China will stay below 20%, and the U.S. will hit 15%. Today, Japan has relatively high EV adoption rates among commercial vehicles, at around 5%. It’s still unclear exactly how much impact commercial vehicle electrification will have on the lubricant packaging industry, since commercial fleet repair shops usually buy lubricants in bulk. Although the electric-vehicle revolution will disrupt traditional lubricant and packaging industries, it will also bring opportunities. Wade of the Electric Vehicle Association says, “The electric-vehicle industry is evolving so rapidly that companies that adapt alongside it will be the winners—including the packaging industry.”

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A Few Common Sense Tips for Selecting Industrial Lubricants—Let’s Take a Look!

The selection of lubricating oils is a crucial step in the use of lubricants, serving as the key to ensuring proper equipment lubrication and fully harnessing the performance of the lubricant. 1. When selecting lubricating oils, one should comprehensively consider the following three factors: (1) The actual operating conditions of the mechanical equipment (i.e., service conditions); (2) The specifications or recommendations provided by the manufacturer of the mechanical equipment; (3) The regulations or recommendations issued by the lubricant manufacturer. 2. Selection of Lubricant Performance Indicators: (1) Viscosity: Viscosity is an indicator used for classifying and grading various lubricating oils, playing a decisive role in quality identification and determination. The viscosity of lubricating oil for equipment should be determined by consulting relevant charts based on design or calculated data. (2) Pour Point: The pour point is an indirect indicator of the low-temperature fluidity of lubricating oils during storage, transportation, and use. Experience has shown that the operating temperature of most lubricating oils must be 5–10°C higher than their pour point. (3) Flash Point: The flash point is primarily an indicator of safety during the storage, transportation, and use of lubricating oils; it also serves as a control parameter during production to monitor the distillation range and volatility of the lubricant. The principle for specifying the flash point of lubricating oils is to leave a safety margin of half the specified value according to safety regulations—meaning the flash point should be at least half higher than the actual operating temperature. For example, since the oil temperature in the sump of internal combustion engine oils generally does not exceed 120°C, the flash point of internal combustion engine oils is set below 180°C. (4) Selection of Performance Indicators: There are numerous performance indicators, with significant differences among various types of oils. Therefore, the selection should be made reasonably, taking into account the equipment’s operating conditions, the manufacturer’s requirements, and the product specifications and descriptions. The goal is to meet both lubrication technical requirements and economic feasibility. Substitution of Lubricating Oils: 1. Different types of lubricating oils each have their own unique or distinctive performance characteristics. Thus, it is essential to select lubricating oils correctly and appropriately, avoiding substitutions altogether and strictly prohibiting random substitutions. 2. Principles for Substituting Lubricating Oils: (1) Whenever possible, substitute with oils of the same type or with similar performance characteristics. (2) The viscosities of the substituting oils should be comparable; the viscosity of the substituting oil should not deviate from that of the original oil by more than ±15%. Preference should be given to oils with slightly higher viscosity for substitution. (3) Substitute with oils of higher quality whenever possible. (4) When selecting substitute oils, also pay attention to the equipment’s environmental conditions and operating temperatures. Mixing of Lubricating Oils: 1. It is best to avoid mixing oils of different grades, from different manufacturers, or between new and old oils. The following oils are prohibited from being mixed: (1) Military special oils and dedicated lubricants must not be mixed with other oils. (2) Oils requiring anti-emulsification properties must not be mixed with oils that do not require such properties. (3) Anti-ammonia turbine oils must not be mixed with other turbine oils. (4) Zinc-containing anti-wear hydraulic oils must not be mixed with anti-silver hydraulic oils. (5) Gear oils must not be mixed with worm gear oils. 2. Internal combustion engine oils often contain a wide variety of additives in large quantities, with varying performance characteristics. Caution is required when mixing oils whose performance characteristics are unknown, to avoid adverse consequences or even equipment lubrication accidents.

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Remembering the History of the War of Resistance and Promoting the National Spirit—The Qingjie Party Branch Visits and Studies the Former Site of the Headquarters of the Eighth Route Army’s Independent Anti-Japanese Detachment in Western Henan.

To celebrate the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, on June 30, the Qingjie Party Branch organized all party members of the company to revisit their oath of joining the Party and watch a study session on Party history. In the afternoon, the Party Branch led all party members to the former site of the headquarters of the Eighth Route Army’s Independent Anti-Japanese Brigade in Yangjiao Village, Fudian Town, Yanshi, where they commemorated the revolutionary martyrs, underwent a baptism of Party spirit, and reflected on their original aspirations and mission. The main purpose of this activity was to revisit the arduous and extraordinary years of the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, carry forward the spirit of dedication demonstrated by the revolutionary martyrs, inspire patriotic enthusiasm among party members, strengthen the cohesion of the Party branch, and promote public awareness of this important event. The main purpose of this activity was to revisit the arduous and extraordinary years of the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, carry forward the spirit of dedication demonstrated by the revolutionary martyrs, inspire patriotic enthusiasm among party members, and strengthen the cohesion of the Party branch.

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